TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Warriors (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Trail Blazersof Warriors, Trail Blazers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,937
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,177

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,937 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Trail Blazers53c6,838$3,624 inWon+$3,214.162,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Warriors47c6,808$3,200 inLost-$3,199.761,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers45c1,026$462 inWon+$563.784,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Warriors55c710.77$391 inLost-$390.688,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Warriors29c357.96$105 inLost-$105.462,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3576…8117backed Trail Blazers71c192.96$137 inWon+$55.9620444.6%91 W · 113 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd710…cf6fbacked Warriors54c177.67$96 inLost-$95.943933.3%13 W · 26 L-6.3wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-37.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf256…a93fbacked Warriors51c109.8$56 inLost-$5613253%70 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Trail Blazers49c109.8$54 inWon+$562,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Warriors48c98.72$47 inLost-$47.069,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9734…bb94backed Trail Blazers52c80$42 inWon+$38.4540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Trail Blazers52c55$29 inWon+$26.2380148.3%387 W · 414 L-3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Warriors48c50$24 inLost-$23.824653.3%131 W · 115 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Trail Blazers53c37.74$20 inWon+$17.7449852.4%261 W · 237 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Warriors48c27.25$13 inLost-$13.083,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.