NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-14.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dad9b285eadf71c7e501a7da5109c7f31a6526e10c1877e81c30c41ce786661

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Hornetsof Thunder, Hornets
Resolved: Nov 15, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $9,877
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,900

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,877 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Hornets	44c	3,705$1,618 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,086.92	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Thunder	59c	975.61$576 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$575.61	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27c5…6d61backed Hornets	41c	975.61$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$575.61	40	40%16 W · 24 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9376…c075backed Thunder	52c	961.54$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	141	56%79 W · 62 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Hornets	45c	868.87$387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$481.7	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Thunder	62c	716.13$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444	184	52.7%97 W · 87 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Hornets	51c	616.8$315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$301.81	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x951f…e430backed Thunder	53c	552.57$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.86	236	52.5%124 W · 112 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d24…e803backed Thunder	56c	492.27$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.67	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.12per pick	53cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd07…cb4ebacked Thunder	57c	350.88$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	-12.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd8d…a108backed Thunder	57c	350.88$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	103	47.6%49 W · 54 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c72…8b8bbacked Thunder	50c	346.95$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.49	51	35.3%18 W · 33 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hornets	43c	240$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.03	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6754…e4fcbacked Thunder	46c	218.51$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-4.1wins	-0.15per pick	45cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Thunder	47c	212.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	245	33.9%83 W · 162 L	-19.1wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Thunder	57c	210.53$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	909	57.6%524 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Thunder	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	331	50.8%168 W · 163 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Thunder	59c	175$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.15	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5dd…490bbacked Thunder	60c	167$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.2	126	54.8%69 W · 57 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Thunder	52c	115.38$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	710	44.6%317 W · 393 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe49a…f498backed Thunder	57c	105.26$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-6.0wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d24…a93fbacked Hornets	56c	90$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.6	310	55.5%172 W · 138 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a7b…7701backed Thunder	57c	87.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	49	55.1%27 W · 22 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2921…78b3backed Thunder	57c	87.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18de…0b64backed Thunder	62c	82$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.84	50	60%30 W · 20 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87d5…9790backed Thunder	61c	82$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.02	133	58.6%78 W · 55 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3576…8117backed Thunder	62c	80.65$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	204	44.6%91 W · 113 L	-9.8wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4b8…68a5backed Thunder	53c	75.47$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	65	56.9%37 W · 28 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb966…cac6backed Thunder	58c	68.97$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	253	51%129 W · 124 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Thunder	57c	55$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.35	149	53%79 W · 70 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0da5…5adfbacked Thunder	57c	52.63$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	125	50.4%63 W · 62 L	-7.6wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x94a2…0c1abacked Thunder	59c	50.85$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	104	47.1%49 W · 55 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Thunder	58c	48.28$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	905	60.8%550 W · 355 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked Thunder	58c	43.1$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	408	53.7%219 W · 189 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b80…76fabacked Thunder	57c	39$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.23	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.6wins	-0.26per pick	56cpaid	-51%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x699d…4260backed Thunder	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d23…b55bbacked Thunder	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	198	61.6%122 W · 76 L	+6.9wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Hornets	41c	36$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.24	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7220…3348backed Thunder	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	57cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Thunder	41c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	34	61.8%21 W · 13 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3024…8ecebacked Thunder	56c	27.54$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	88	75%66 W · 22 L	+12.8wins	+0.15per pick	60cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x8b47…5286backed Hornets	45c	27$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.85	109	45%49 W · 60 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hornets	53c	22.43$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.54	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Hornets	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	246	53.3%131 W · 115 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Thunder (-14.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event