TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,397
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,654

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,397 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e2f…ec47backed Under52c4,927$2,578 inWon+$2,348.874748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c3,728$1,738 inLost-$1,737.589,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over48c1,005$482 inLost-$482.45,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9376…c075backed Under55c909.09$500 inWon+$409.0914156%79 W · 62 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over48c400$192 inLost-$19284342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under60c312$187 inWon+$124.81,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over40c300$120 inLost-$1202,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Over40c212$85 inLost-$84.82,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa43…5813backed Under51c200$102 inWon+$982969%20 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e13…732fbacked Under59c187$110 inWon+$76.676648.5%32 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over49c173$85 inLost-$84.774,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa29d…fbc0backed Over38c170$65 inLost-$64.6862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+25.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa65b…0419backed Under61c164.52$100 inWon+$64.5214763.3%93 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bbd…8e99backed Under62c158$98 inWon+$60.04977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick50cpaid+44.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Under60c100$60 inWon+$4042845.1%193 W · 235 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Under59c84.75$50 inWon+$34.7561056.1%342 W · 268 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over38c64.52$25 inLost-$24.522,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ec…ad73backed Under55c54.55$30 inWon+$24.5519451.5%100 W · 94 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over49c51.49$25 inLost-$25.3559743.6%260 W · 337 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbba2…eaa6backed Over48c41.67$20 inLost-$2016357.1%93 W · 70 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under56c40.32$23 inWon+$17.7422656.6%128 W · 98 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x061e…81e0backed Over45c31.11$14 inLost-$1419849%97 W · 101 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Over48c30$14 inLost-$14.413155%72 W · 59 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under55c22.22$12 inWon+$103,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.