NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5071d70bd9e3cbc0c38c5079a9366b5de07d7d626528bed2dc33cf1cd93acdb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Thunder, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 45c | 2,511$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.39 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked Thunder | 52c | 2,073$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.18 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Thunder | 51c | 1,800$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.99 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8265…e0eebacked Hornets | 49c | 1,546$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.44 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4439…585fbacked Hornets | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef87…7231backed Thunder | 58c | 1,006$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.55 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked Thunder | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Hornets | 47c | 900$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb00…42e9backed Thunder | 53c | 900$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Thunder | 52c | 780.12$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.66 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 46c | 589$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.21 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Hornets | 47c | 499.97$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.98 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Hornets | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…093cbacked Hornets | 50c | 319.13$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.63 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Thunder | 50c | 310$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Hornets | 48c | 287.5$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder | 49c | 250.26$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.63 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hornets | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c72…8b8bbacked Thunder | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…dc27backed Thunder | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 158 | 53.8%85 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Thunder | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…45d3backed Thunder | 58c | 172.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Hornets | 46c | 172.19$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.41 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Hornets | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 631 | 42%265 W · 366 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Hornets | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hornets | 50c | 131.6$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…55eabacked Thunder | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Hornets | 44c | 99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Hornets | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58e…0893backed Thunder | 54c | 92.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Thunder | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Thunder | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fd…2602backed Thunder | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x003b…4da0backed Thunder | 53c | 38.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5729…c366backed Thunder | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0b…1466backed Thunder | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ec…9684backed Thunder | 56c | 30.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c35…e403backed Thunder | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…c10abacked Thunder | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb52…8046backed Thunder | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Hornets won
- Thunder vs. HornetsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Hornets: O/U 223.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Hornets: O/U 224.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Hornets: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.