NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Hornets: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8084ba063da6436a6f35219dc4c8b673abe9a4ea8e5e2546ee4e2cbf391303a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 7,500$3,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,675 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 49c | 1,976$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.24 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 1,860$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.65 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Over | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 49c | 1,576$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 49c | 1,241$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.24 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 1,237$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.19 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Over | 50c | 1,001$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…af42backed Over | 51c | 982.75$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 499$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.5 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 52c | 210$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 54c | 199$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.46 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 49c | 189$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ece…50f0backed Over | 49c | 141.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Over | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4741backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1358…d34abacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Over | 51c | 61.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…5431backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 224 | 67.9%152 W · 72 L | +13.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…2c0bbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x075a…8d34backed Over | 54c | 29.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 284 | 54.6%155 W · 129 L | -17.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…d7abbacked Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9db…7984backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…7d5fbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Hornets: O/U 224.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Hornets won
- Thunder vs. HornetsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Hornets: O/U 223.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Hornets: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.