TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Rockets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rocketsof Magic, Rockets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,966,022
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,461,032

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,966,022 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,963 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7606…2836backed Rockets57c204,583$116,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88,421.472365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+24.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fe6…abd4backed Magic48c177,631$85,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85,402.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8605…750fbacked Rockets76c111,792$85,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,371.562657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Magic47c82,293$38,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,797.0319249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Rockets62c80,000$49,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,20038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Magic25c69,520$17,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,486.592,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic35c68,641$23,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,748.395,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a59…770cbacked Rockets70c48,594$33,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,602.046665.2%43 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Magic25c40,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000.0859653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf0…251cbacked Magic27c36,502$9,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,855.627339.7%29 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Rockets74c30,186$22,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,846.062,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Magic34c30,169$10,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,113.8248046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd735…968ebacked Rockets52c28,717$14,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,722.542759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+45.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Magic26c28,041$7,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,241.2872450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ee…81b1backed Rockets74c27,166$20,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,021.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Magic47c26,453$12,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,343.841,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Magic48c25,254$12,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,006.2159646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic25c25,078$6,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,264.599,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Rockets74c25,000$18,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,449.9920253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Magic42c24,252$10,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,221.4926038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Magic26c23,300$6,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,058.1247751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe786…b716backed Rockets74c22,978$17,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,902.782268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9792…0812backed Rockets75c22,800$17,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,725.16683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72c8…f18dbacked Rockets75c22,766$17,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,691.59475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Rockets73c20,256$14,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,470.814456.8%25 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Magic27c20,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,40014052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Magic44c20,000$8,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,799.9912334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Rockets51c19,678$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,678.0313355.6%74 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9571…1d98backed Magic63c19,247$12,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,188.572147.6%10 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick62cpaid-28.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Magic25c18,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.961,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Magic26c17,458$4,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,539.167946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x220c…43c8backed Rockets72c15,255$11,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,227.947149.3%35 W · 36 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Magic65c15,157$9,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,84122457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Magic24c12,938$3,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,075.7674748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Magic25c12,500$3,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,124.982,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x685e…6f30backed Rockets71c12,000$8,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,54010757.9%62 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6e11…82a9backed Magic49c11,296$5,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,553.29837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa888…90a8backed Rockets75c11,051$8,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3db…0b3cbacked Magic42c11,000$4,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,619.931936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Rockets75c10,795$8,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,751.792,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Rockets65c10,152$6,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,577.5850954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeeec…961cbacked Rockets74c9,640$7,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,517.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-54.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Magic24c9,486$2,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,314.362,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e4…9241backed Magic25c9,140$2,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2853432.4%11 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Rockets60c8,465$5,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,391.7734645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5da4…1ffdbacked Magic40c8,383$3,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,348.46450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Rockets75c8,361$6,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,12412843.8%56 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Rockets59c8,324$4,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,391.7776850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Magic4c8,014$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.981,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ff3…9331backed Rockets73c8,003$5,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,144.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Rockets64c7,914$5,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,845.613248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa0bd…efddbacked Rockets59c7,904$4,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,258.431369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Magic38c7,821$2,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,935.5385344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Rockets67c7,469$5,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,438.944459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Rockets42c7,401$3,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,256.571,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Magic40c7,300$2,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,895.848845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf485…d672backed Rockets46c7,174$3,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,887.561163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+53.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x94e5…6cfebacked Rockets74c7,000$5,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7904456.8%25 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Rockets74c6,715$4,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,748.7544648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x349e…1654backed Magic73c6,169$4,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,491.610431.7%33 W · 71 L-6.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-25.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Magic26c5,700$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48292753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Magic27c5,624$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,518.4869852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Rockets55c5,609$3,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,507.2580146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic43c5,593$2,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,381.924,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Magic11c5,542$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60025925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Magic46c5,408$2,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,481.191,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Magic25c5,183$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.6766853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Magic25c5,175$1,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.372,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Rockets56c5,153$2,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,274.163,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed Magic41c5,050$2,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,067.992941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9725…2365backed Rockets75c5,000$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2503259.4%19 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Magic30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50012529.6%37 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Magic49c4,887$2,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,377.741,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Rockets48c4,684$2,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,439.7117147.4%81 W · 90 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Magic49c4,611$2,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,254.4581529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fdd…5feabacked Rockets54c4,607$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,106.783243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdefe…bdb8backed Magic26c4,582$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.584725.5%12 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa24f…593dbacked Rockets66c4,580$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,580.251631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Magic23c4,556$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.8595049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Magic25c4,437$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.4673647.3%348 W · 388 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b3…4d23backed Rockets52c4,308$2,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,050475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Rockets73c4,000$2,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08078445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa89e…fb60backed Rockets75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0005379.2%42 W · 11 L+6.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+15.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Rockets61c3,849$2,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,503.535347.2%25 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Rockets46c3,806$1,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,053.4885742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Magic25c3,731$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.581,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Rockets45c3,628$1,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,992.2619957.8%115 W · 84 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Rockets54c3,223$1,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,486.8629458.5%172 W · 122 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6c1…73d8backed Rockets77c3,200$2,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a33…5325backed Magic24c3,200$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+47.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4e…31cbbacked Rockets58c3,200$1,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.3116750.9%85 W · 82 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe11a…e5b6backed Rockets68c3,159$2,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.471353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Magic24c3,132$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.2124330.9%75 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Magic58c3,081$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.351,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Magic25c3,075$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.61,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f00…8982backed Rockets64c3,070$1,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.854676.1%35 W · 11 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Magic40c3,051$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.611,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Rockets74c3,003$2,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.718452.7%97 W · 87 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d44…53fdbacked Magic24c3,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+47.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2e…7f88backed Rockets77c3,000$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.