NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1988f662897c670be9fca0ca66d060f359e263b0df754e04626f334ebf96c9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Rockets, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Rockets | 53c | 8,543$4,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,531.56 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Magic | 49c | 7,932$3,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,045.25 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…251cbacked Magic | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Magic | 47c | 3,268$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,732.3 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Rockets | 51c | 2,425$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.7 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Rockets | 51c | 1,555$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.2 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Rockets | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5e…00afbacked Magic | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef87…7231backed Rockets | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…4b61backed Magic | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Rockets | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Rockets | 20c | 961.53$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.31 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 47c | 903.23$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.98 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked Rockets | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Magic | 47c | 831$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.43 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Rockets | 53c | 475.33$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Magic | 48c | 436.43$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.96 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac88…9b35backed Rockets | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Magic | 46c | 318.86$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.39 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Rockets | 52c | 293$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.36 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 48c | 268.75$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.1 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…848ebacked Rockets | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Rockets | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Rockets | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 45c | 190$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.14 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked Rockets | 55c | 182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Rockets | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe80…e0a6backed Rockets | 51c | 178.39$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Magic | 47c | 160.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Rockets | 51c | 135$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Rockets | 51c | 130.61$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.61 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Rockets | 54c | 127.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Rockets | 54c | 117.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Rockets | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ae…5fdebacked Rockets | 52c | 109$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…81e0backed Rockets | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Magic | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Rockets | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Magic | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Rockets | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Rockets | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Rockets | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…e89ebacked Rockets | 54c | 79.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Magic | 58c | 77.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 353 | 52.4%185 W · 168 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Rockets | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Magic | 45c | 72.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic | 47c | 71.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Rockets | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516a…a2edbacked Rockets | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Magic | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Rockets | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Magic | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Rockets | 53c | 47.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Rockets | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Rockets | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Rockets | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…4d91backed Rockets | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Rockets | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…8174backed Rockets | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Rockets | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Magic | 48c | 35.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ece…8211backed Rockets | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Magic | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…c10abacked Rockets | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…85d0backed Magic | 49c | 27.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 265 | 44.9%119 W · 146 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…2d12backed Rockets | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 68.6%116 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Magic | 47c | 21.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd49f…33a4backed Rockets | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)this page
- Magic vs. RocketsRockets won
- Magic vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Magic won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.