NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d6a6d4a899cf57f4cc59b9d7506f950152068b1ecbbd7a1cece0ab2291a34f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 52c | 3,634$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.65 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 48c | 3,219$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,674.07 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Under | 54c | 2,315$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.25 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over | 48c | 1,562$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.5 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e1…6851backed Over | 47c | 570$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.1 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…86e0backed Under | 53c | 570$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.1 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 48c | 240$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…093cbacked Over | 48c | 190.63$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.13 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 36c | 130.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 64c | 130$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 121.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Over | 39c | 109.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Over | 48c | 92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Over | 46c | 89.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…cb8fbacked Under | 61c | 75.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 45c | 73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c73…36c5backed Under | 59c | 67.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 41c | 57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 48c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Over | 48c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 317 | 54.6%173 W · 144 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 48c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 41c | 36.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…5b88backed Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -6.3wins | -0.30per pick | 54cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Under | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b6…e5b3backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5this page
- Magic vs. RocketsRockets won
- Magic vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Magic won
- Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Magic won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.