NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6b2a260b51b8e9094f00fecd5d25bca87ed7599b56e3bbb5a7412394d93e49c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 52c | 8,205$4,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,244.55 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 6,122$3,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,215.48 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 5,073$2,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,587.91 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 47c | 3,801$1,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,014.53 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Over | 80c | 2,736$2,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.23 | 964 | 47.8%461 W · 503 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Over | 48c | 1,676$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.65 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Over | 47c | 1,431$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.42 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 47c | 1,050$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.5 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Over | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 44c | 636$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.76 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa499…7873backed Over | 48c | 626$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.52 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 47c | 234.04$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.04 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 52c | 221.65$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.26 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…368cbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Over | 47c | 204.5$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.38 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 49c | 144$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Over | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf985…b227backed Over | 46c | 110$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7f…f524backed Over | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…a953backed Over | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 68.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7220…3348backed Over | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 43c | 64.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…9347backed Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57bc…d82dbacked Over | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be8…f449backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9585…475cbacked Under | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…fb23backed Under | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5this page
- Magic vs. RocketsRockets won
- Magic vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Magic won
- Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Magic won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.