NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8eec7acef3842f8c8c2a3d7425b8c14e4ee45794854843e52477c24aa2da00c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 7,831$4,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,026.33 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 52c | 4,231$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.77 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Under | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,919.91 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 47c | 1,462$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.66 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.96 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 48c | 1,020$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.4 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Under | 48c | 720.7$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.94 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 49c | 611.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Over | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 52c | 232.08$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.68 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 50c | 200.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 54c | 108$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 105.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Over | 48c | 104.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf139…1d3bbacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 44c | 99.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…ed59backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc58e…0893backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…7c76backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked Over | 52c | 33.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Over | 48c | 23.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd49f…33a4backed Over | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5this page
- Magic vs. RocketsRockets won
- Magic vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Magic won
- Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Magic won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.