NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x384c7d0f33719628a36314041527735e5ccdbb7cbe71e3ef22956a9bc12d6907
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Rockets, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Magic | 51c | 20,539$10,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,094.66 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Rockets | 49c | 15,000$7,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,350 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 50c | 3,867$1,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,937.2 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Rockets | 47c | 2,100$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Rockets | 49c | 1,950$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.5 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8265…e0eebacked Rockets | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Rockets | 52c | 1,442$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Magic | 51c | 1,167$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.5 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Magic | 51c | 1,050$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.95 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Rockets | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Rockets | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Rockets | 48c | 624.38$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.7 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Rockets | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…732fbacked Rockets | 50c | 350$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Rockets | 46c | 208.17$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Rockets | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Rockets | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Magic | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Rockets | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Magic | 55c | 181.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Rockets | 50c | 139.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Magic | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Rockets | 23c | 129.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Magic | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…2312backed Rockets | 48c | 110.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Rockets | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Rockets | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Rockets | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Rockets | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Rockets | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf90c…f49cbacked Rockets | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…7c76backed Rockets | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7220…3348backed Rockets | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc4…48aebacked Rockets | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…9f6bbacked Rockets | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Rockets | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…c10abacked Rockets | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d7…0b48backed Magic | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed Magic | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rockets | 48c | 27.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-8.5)this page
- Magic vs. RocketsRockets won
- Magic vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Magic won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.