NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x529a071b2acb8e00494736c33773122b97c775ee7aa70cb3c97f51d88d4c541f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 9,512$4,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,652.84 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Over | 51c | 7,464$3,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,657.42 | 259 | 45.6%118 W · 141 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cdb0backed Over | 43c | 276.08$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.08 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 201.08$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…6e5cbacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…f2ecbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…5962backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 51c | 196$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Over | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 50c | 109.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 49c | 82.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…51dabacked Over | 52c | 82.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf985…b227backed Over | 50c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Over | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 25c | 68.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 51c | 62.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked Over | 25c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 291 | 56.4%164 W · 127 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…748cbacked Over | 51c | 36.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…4b15backed Over | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…3ae9backed Over | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…03efbacked Over | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94db…26bbbacked Over | 51c | 23.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…aec0backed Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8043…7fe3backed Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…a0a5backed Over | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dda…5cbbbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5this page
- Magic vs. RocketsRockets won
- Magic vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Magic won
- Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Magic won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.