NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x607a111c5ff4144ce71c39b98f0c31c832791a1e314437ab0adbc5a8f219d151
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Knicks, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks | 45c | 2,268$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.13 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Knicks | 55c | 1,584$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.2 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 42c | 1,446$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Knicks | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Knicks | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c72…8b8bbacked Knicks | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…7c76backed Knicks | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Mavericks | 43c | 198$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Knicks | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Knicks | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Mavericks | 45c | 149.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…8248backed Knicks | 61c | 142.62$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Mavericks | 47c | 126.11$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Knicks | 61c | 122.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x003b…4da0backed Knicks | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Mavericks | 41c | 84.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc667…a381backed Knicks | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Knicks | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…4970backed Knicks | 53c | 64.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Knicks | 56c | 62.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked Knicks | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Knicks | 57c | 58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Mavericks | 40c | 54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Knicks | 57c | 52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Knicks | 51c | 45.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks | 47c | 39.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…f9a1backed Knicks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 350 | 52%182 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Knicks | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Mavericks | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…1d1dbacked Knicks | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9802…4c0dbacked Knicks | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…7701backed Knicks | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a51…ef48backed Knicks | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf09d…115fbacked Knicks | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aed…bd17backed Mavericks | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Mavericks | 48c | 22.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Knicks | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Knicks vs. MavericksKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-8.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.