NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b22dd6781b7731569a540c8753639dcb7d9f00d28731d9dac6968cdb72916f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 53c | 5,536$2,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,934.32 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 50c | 4,522$2,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,253.81 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Under | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 1,610$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.82 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 208 | 51.4%107 W · 101 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Under | 52c | 215$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b4…e861backed Over | 49c | 204.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 188.1$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd30…4163backed Over | 52c | 172.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Under | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Under | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0e62backed Under | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Under | 51c | 22.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…3b9dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c73…36c5backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Knicks vs. MavericksKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-8.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.