NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa13c039333b14ae9efc722c83fb317fb05694145b6f49a9306812ee50debf6ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc282…caccbacked Under | 49c | 10,200$4,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,202 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…b378backed Over | 51c | 10,200$5,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,202 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 2,976$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.37 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Over | 52c | 2,126$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.26 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 57c | 1,400$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.35 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 55c | 1,120$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.96 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 43c | 999.99$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 57c | 922.61$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.89 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Under | 43c | 921$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.97 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Over | 55c | 910$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.5 | 208 | 51.4%107 W · 101 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 678$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.01 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Under | 27c | 600$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 457 | 3.5%16 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…e4c8backed Over | 58c | 434.59$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 431.05$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.68 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c1…b4afbacked Under | 49c | 410$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.1 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e07…1f7ebacked Over | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 75c | 288$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.09 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 47c | 209.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.44 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 23c | 192.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 77c | 189.61$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Under | 45c | 147$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 73c | 104.76$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…821fbacked Under | 20c | 99.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da9…582ebacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 58c | 85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5e…615cbacked Over | 77c | 72.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Over | 55c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f1…1744backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…afaabacked Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +6.8wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c3…49edbacked Over | 57c | 34.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Over | 55c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Over | 55c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 45c | 25.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9802…4c0dbacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Knicks vs. MavericksKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-8.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.