NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd700c7ee137bf5963b0797178426f4215739d960d3d24740a216704379ec1f96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Knicks, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Mavericks | 48c | 7,383$3,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,816.25 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Knicks | 50c | 5,305$2,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,631.56 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Knicks | 52c | 5,134$2,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,666.78 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks | 50c | 4,055$2,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,011.55 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Mavericks | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,039.99 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Mavericks | 47c | 3,395$1,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,809.6 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Knicks | 51c | 3,327$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.67 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Knicks | 52c | 2,704$1,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412.86 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Knicks | 52c | 2,251$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.58 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Mavericks | 48c | 2,174$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.48 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Knicks | 51c | 2,071$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.07 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks | 50c | 1,500$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.01 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Knicks | 57c | 880$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.6 | 208 | 51.4%107 W · 101 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Knicks | 16c | 502.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…1ebebacked Knicks | 55c | 449.29$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.11 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Knicks | 53c | 301.89$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Knicks | 49c | 225$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Mavericks | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Mavericks | 48c | 96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Knicks | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -16.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Mavericks | 50c | 76.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Knicks | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Knicks | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Mavericks | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a4…4e86backed Knicks | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8211…8981backed Mavericks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…7f18backed Mavericks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Knicks vs. MavericksKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-8.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.