NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf704470a720f423070d4b2a41f5e97b9344e1c1386d2b303db715457eaf4a6a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Over | 1c | 8,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Over | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 35c | 1,097$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.4 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Over | 52c | 970$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.4 | 208 | 51.4%107 W · 101 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 883.63$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.83 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 65c | 779.36$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.42 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 731$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.2 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 40c | 406.2$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.26 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 51c | 360$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.93 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 30c | 240.86$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Over | 61c | 205.26$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Over | 23c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Over | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 194$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.88 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 59c | 177$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.01 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Over | 64c | 156.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…821fbacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 79.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…0123backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 61c | 69.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 19c | 61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ae…6bc8backed Over | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 44c | 60.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…78b3backed Over | 65c | 54.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 35c | 41.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked Under | 38c | 36.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 163 | 21.5%35 W · 128 L | -20.3wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x188b…7c63backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 37c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb44…e977backed Over | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…8f51backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ee…eab7backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Over | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Over | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Over | 67c | 20.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcae1…7dddbacked Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 61 | 77%47 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Knicks vs. MavericksKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-8.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.