NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd78246895518be4c3f53244e4a1d00cbab411e78a1dc4b7a777a77f43a1620e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Knicks, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $264,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $253,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $264,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2643…39aebacked Knicks | 52c | 221,677$115,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115,810.35 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 48c | 87,537$41,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,913.22 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks | 46c | 58,215$26,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,502.95 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Mavericks | 49c | 48,828$23,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,931.49 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Mavericks | 50c | 20,200$10,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,100 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Knicks | 50c | 12,655$6,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,341.25 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Mavericks | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…f932backed Knicks | 52c | 8,365$4,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,350.01 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Mavericks | 3c | 8,244$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,996.27 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Mavericks | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3439…4f64backed Mavericks | 50c | 1,980$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Mavericks | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Mavericks | 52c | 1,437$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.76 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Mavericks | 5c | 1,200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Knicks | 16c | 1,136$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.01 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Knicks | 49c | 1,012$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…54febacked Knicks | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Knicks | 55c | 700$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks | 45c | 696.55$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.1 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Mavericks | 69c | 432.77$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.77 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8ae8backed Mavericks | 50c | 360$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Mavericks | 47c | 307.52$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.02 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Knicks | 51c | 198.04$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -16.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Mavericks | 50c | 171.28$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aed…eb43backed Knicks | 52c | 157.69$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Mavericks | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Knicks | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…a062backed Knicks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Mavericks | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Mavericks | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Mavericks | 51c | 84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 183 | 57.4%105 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 45c | 72.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Mavericks | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Mavericks | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Mavericks | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Mavericks | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…435cbacked Mavericks | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Knicks | 60c | 20.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…c4dfbacked Knicks | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Knicks vs. MavericksKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.