Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Sinner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7300d65b271f4478a87305039a5209cded9fa909d32571cb7d1ef5c6a32b2154
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Alcaraz, Sinner
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7cf4…20b3backed Alcaraz | 48c | 2,051$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.94 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sinner | 49c | 1,100$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.88 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Alcaraz | 39c | 563$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.57 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Sinner | 61c | 558$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.62 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Sinner | 56c | 459.32$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.89 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Alcaraz | 44c | 457$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sinner | 57c | 399.46$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.02 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Sinner | 59c | 346.34$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…b13abacked Alcaraz | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…c3a1backed Alcaraz | 43c | 202.04$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Alcaraz | 37c | 193.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Sinner | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Sinner | 58c | 176.52$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc9…843fbacked Alcaraz | 55c | 140.53$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x211e…35ddbacked Sinner | 55c | 103.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9d…4ad7backed Sinner | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Sinner | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 395 | 34.4%136 W · 259 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98bf…f6d2backed Sinner | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Alcaraz | 41c | 71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b8…0ca9backed Alcaraz | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fa…1cf2backed Alcaraz | 54c | 54.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Alcaraz | 41c | 53.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…b18cbacked Sinner | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Alcaraz | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…91f6backed Alcaraz | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…4ef4backed Alcaraz | 55c | 48.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71f…09f2backed Sinner | 61c | 44.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Sinnerthis page
- ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik SinnerSinner won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Alcaraz (+1.5)Sinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.