Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Alcaraz (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x605b94479783ee87e45ddb0b887802d1c06a015bc0a459254bb82778ef4c7c16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Sinner, Alcaraz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Sinner | 36c | 1,826$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.38 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed Sinner | 38c | 1,646$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.86 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Alcaraz | 62c | 1,608$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.02 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…20b3backed Alcaraz | 68c | 1,223$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.14 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Alcaraz | 64c | 1,100$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Sinner | 36c | 770.31$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.92 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Alcaraz | 64c | 563.33$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b64…aa5cbacked Alcaraz | 66c | 525.1$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Sinner | 36c | 500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…92b3backed Alcaraz | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +259.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Alcaraz | 63c | 263.79$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.23 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Alcaraz | 62c | 226.58$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.48 | 600 | 55.7%334 W · 266 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Alcaraz | 66c | 224.17$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.18 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9d…4ad7backed Sinner | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Sinner | 38c | 175.11$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.11 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Alcaraz | 52c | 166.25$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.3 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…3570backed Alcaraz | 63c | 157.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Alcaraz | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0e…4838backed Sinner | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Sinner | 34c | 149.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Sinner | 39c | 149.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Alcaraz | 68c | 147.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Alcaraz | 48c | 131.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Sinner | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Sinner | 32c | 123.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.92 | 395 | 34.4%136 W · 259 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Sinner | 44c | 112.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1527…120ebacked Alcaraz | 64c | 101.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab6…bf68backed Sinner | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed Alcaraz | 59c | 93.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x084d…7e47backed Alcaraz | 64c | 86.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -14%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…8ec7backed Sinner | 40c | 81.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Alcaraz | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Alcaraz | 64c | 78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…8849backed Sinner | 39c | 66.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…5bfebacked Alcaraz | 63c | 62.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2304…6541backed Alcaraz | 63c | 53.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Alcaraz | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Alcaraz | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce34…63f7backed Alcaraz | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked Sinner | 67c | 44.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…c2e3backed Alcaraz | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Sinner | 37c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa978…5801backed Alcaraz | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Alcaraz | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Sinner | 36c | 31.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dd…9889backed Alcaraz | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Sinner | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942f…b1e7backed Alcaraz | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Alcaraz (+1.5)this page
- ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik SinnerSinner won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs SinnerSinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.