World Politics · resolved market
Will Andrew Holness be the next Prime Minister of Jamaica after the election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6038390c8d27013392407438c03f2d8d8f08bc0787de2338d3da6842fe94b1d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 77c | 828.21$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.18 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabdc…e471backed Yes | 55c | 689.1$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5de…332bbacked Yes | 75c | 663.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 17c | 655.72$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec5d…015cbacked Yes | 37c | 578.16$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 47c | 561.42$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.41 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 548.01$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 61c | 441.05$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.29 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 29c | 402.51$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.13 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 40c | 400$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 333.49$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 34c | 273.2$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.2 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 52c | 268.15$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 40c | 250$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 36c | 220$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.4 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…0f90backed Yes | 80c | 202.89$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f1…2287backed Yes | 79c | 202$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53c…67a5backed Yes | 33c | 200.01$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +540.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…5c91backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…cb5fbacked Yes | 52c | 192.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf737…37aabacked Yes | 65c | 167.69$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…1278backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…2b92backed Yes | 70c | 130.14$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad9…b7c8backed No | 28c | 130$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 26c | 102.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20f8…1430backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 37c | 87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb3…c25abacked No | 23c | 84.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 72c | 80.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 52c | 78.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes | 65c | 76.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa526…34aabacked Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 52cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a75…0230backed Yes | 69c | 62.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfedd…bb82backed Yes | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…70d7backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10db…c5afbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb449…1a89backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…1430backed No | 29c | 48.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 52c | 42.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefcd…4eefbacked Yes | 68c | 39.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862c…9d40backed Yes | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 46c | 33.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ff…f475backed Yes | 76c | 32.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 48c | 29.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 55c | 28.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b30…2020backed Yes | 74c | 20.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a51…703dbacked Yes | 75c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0368…8febbacked Yes | 73c | 18.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 71c | 14.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Andrew Holness be the next Prime Minister of Jamaica after the election?this page
- Will Devon McDaniel be the next Prime Minister of Jamaica after the election?No won
- Will Mark Golding be the next Prime Minister of Jamaica after the election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.