World Politics · resolved market
Will Mark Golding be the next Prime Minister of Jamaica after the election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb83923d888d7ec2a827a66c229ee046dc16c8ef1fda1e0b6ca4ce03393c6c084
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 37c | 2,823$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.6 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 51c | 1,196$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.03 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 33c | 800$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 3c | 752.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 44c | 667.19$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.05 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 602$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.28 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 50c | 561.37$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.57 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5763…1c22backed No | 79c | 474$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 41c | 440.78$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.06 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 323.75$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.67 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 33c | 298$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.47 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…0992backed Yes | 37c | 272.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 52c | 269.29$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 22c | 263.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 16c | 220$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…5c91backed No | 79c | 196.05$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 58c | 186.61$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.29 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 18c | 167.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 53c | 163.38$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 54c | 123$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…b297backed Yes | 30c | 100.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 22c | 92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 49c | 79.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 48c | 38.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 59c | 31.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 57c | 21.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mark Golding be the next Prime Minister of Jamaica after the election?this page
- Will Andrew Holness be the next Prime Minister of Jamaica after the election?Yes won
- Will Devon McDaniel be the next Prime Minister of Jamaica after the election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.