Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4b05347e5705ec4f12affbac97f3011859a3919cb7c23b0509f11f2cd995d4b

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 28, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $103,011
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $56,603

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,011 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5ccf…15a2backed Yes	0c	19,570$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.57	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes	1c	5,882$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.38	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	4,534$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.32	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes	1c	2,580$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.62	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	2c	1,500$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.42	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	1,131$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec6e…95c4backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa526…34aabacked Yes	4c	901.26$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee04…1b0bbacked Yes	3c	637.18$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab7e…2a96backed Yes	3c	500$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e90…0bd0backed Yes	3c	287.78$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event