Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x086d41246db853526b6b8660ccf68a1a9d091cde39d2a7340822b51e1ae63663

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 29, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $171,482
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $113,301

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,482 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	10,887$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.31	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bbe…05babacked Yes	0c	9,688$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	1c	7,900$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.5	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	7,373$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.63	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f3…8692backed Yes	0c	5,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	1c	2,500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb4…cb1ebacked Yes	1c	2,373$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	2,342$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.4	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec6e…95c4backed Yes	4c	1,610$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.08	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes	2c	1,504$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.62	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes	3c	1,247$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.41	82	11%9 W · 73 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	5c	1,153$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.15	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	1c	958.46$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.54	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	6c	867.48$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.84	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa526…34aabacked Yes	8c	714.95$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	8c	700$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.08	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa114…fdadbacked Yes	6c	667.2$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbea3…e34fbacked Yes	6c	587.33$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aac…7b50backed Yes	4c	547.93$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.92	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	6c	524.23$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab7e…2a96backed Yes	7c	500$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6507…b0eabacked Yes	8c	375$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b7e…79e5backed Yes	6c	341.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd11a…e1ddbacked Yes	10c	251.97$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee04…1b0bbacked Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes	9c	229.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x03b7…cf78backed Yes	9c	212.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.35per pick	15cpaid	+141.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes	5c	205.34$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	65	26.2%17 W · 48 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b3…c1b1backed Yes	5c	195.94$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event