Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a071e451e803d04a99a3b624370caf49808b15a5ba9ae954eb94ae4e73dd97d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7be…570cbacked Yes | 74c | 5,372$3,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,397.9 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 12c | 805.66$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.09 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43da…cb1abacked No | 64c | 679$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…9eeebacked Yes | 37c | 679$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked No | 58c | 587.59$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.44 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 38c | 509.01$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.2 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…e8b0backed No | 38c | 440.98$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.57 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe600…4da3backed No | 37c | 385$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e9…b2b3backed No | 63c | 371$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…e730backed Yes | 63c | 355$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 186 | 40.3%75 W · 111 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49b3…ce24backed No | 60c | 247$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0e…c08fbacked No | 66c | 245$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…5b69backed Yes | 37c | 245$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8055…5538backed Yes | 37c | 243$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4585…8a64backed No | 63c | 241$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 50c | 199.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…90efbacked Yes | 31c | 193$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…4eb9backed No | 69c | 193$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a68…df2fbacked Yes | 34c | 184$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +129%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a24…20a6backed Yes | 31c | 179$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd103…69f6backed No | 69c | 179$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 27c | 178.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e00…dd24backed Yes | 34c | 171$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d87…b653backed Yes | 31c | 165$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75c5…b3bdbacked No | 69c | 165$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…2f3ebacked No | 56c | 157.28$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4b…aaa6backed Yes | 34c | 153$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdd…e916backed Yes | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…5165backed Yes | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b3…10c6backed Yes | 63c | 140$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 31c | 137.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 35c | 125$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.9 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…79e5backed Yes | 68c | 115.64$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…be05backed Yes | 37c | 115$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…d8a5backed No | 37c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 44c | 102.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 38c | 96.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes | 70c | 95.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…dac7backed Yes | 79c | 84.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 68c | 75.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked No | 59c | 66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5d…fbfdbacked Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf53…b5b9backed Yes | 68c | 51.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 71c | 51.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed No | 38c | 49.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb210…92b5backed Yes | 40c | 43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 75c | 40.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x886e…97c0backed Yes | 72c | 36.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2d…56f6backed Yes | 40c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffd…b9b6backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -47%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 62c | 24.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…b45dbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e3…4a48backed No | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or below on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.