Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb26e2cb54f252a9c47df38134595258faeccc7c75eabeaae25b7a3a1a511e0fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b7e…79e5backed Yes | 50c | 1,270$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,102$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.39 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 24c | 728.76$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.12 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…e730backed No | 46c | 480.91$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.69 | 186 | 40.3%75 W · 111 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…5f05backed Yes | 45c | 390.48$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 44c | 315.8$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…be05backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 79c | 298.26$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 247.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…dac7backed Yes | 46c | 242.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a4…2eb4backed No | 70c | 220$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed0d…daabbacked No | 70c | 214$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b3…ce24backed Yes | 30c | 214$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2d…56f6backed No | 70c | 207$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…5b69backed Yes | 30c | 207$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8055…5538backed No | 70c | 205$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…9eeebacked Yes | 30c | 205$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 27c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e9…b2b3backed Yes | 30c | 196$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b0…df88backed No | 69c | 186$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…82c0backed Yes | 31c | 186$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 29c | 138.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 62c | 131.66$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 61c | 126$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 10c | 102.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.24 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 86.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 29c | 77.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 79c | 67.7$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked No | 71c | 66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 19c | 63.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 28c | 61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…5bcebacked Yes | 40c | 60.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 23c | 59.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 32c | 51.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffd…b9b6backed Yes | 32c | 46.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -47%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…2e59backed Yes | 28c | 45.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…0eecbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on March 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or below on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.