Tennis · resolved market
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84cc453856ec7cd3029e2651e6a9e5ed4c3e8ace0ada815911706885a2d65a7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31cf…8834backed No | 14c | 10,227$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…8874backed No | 7c | 4,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…993ebacked No | 13c | 3,414$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.85 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 15c | 2,980$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.05 | 647 | 55.2%357 W · 290 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 5c | 2,908$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed No | 27c | 2,604$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28aa…a986backed No | 21c | 2,242$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked No | 37c | 2,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.99 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked No | 39c | 1,951$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.96 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 12c | 1,862$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.44 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed No | 38c | 1,651$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.01 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x519f…2af7backed Yes | 61c | 1,634$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.65 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 63c | 1,563$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.76 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Yes | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No | 15c | 1,301$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.12 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…74cfbacked No | 16c | 1,191$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 63c | 1,120$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 14c | 1,044$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.16 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…5607backed Yes | 80c | 852.1$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.42 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c3…b862backed Yes | 80c | 791.25$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…c6e3backed Yes | 78c | 708.77$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 37c | 644.07$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.64 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 63c | 630.67$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.67 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…7cd3backed Yes | 62c | 599.99$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 63c | 544.9$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.61 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 460.72$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…650abacked Yes | 59c | 458.35$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…63e1backed Yes | 60c | 375.98$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked Yes | 63c | 344.32$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 58c | 344.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.25 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Yes | 60c | 335.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.44 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ed…27bcbacked Yes | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Yes | 78c | 280.83$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 79 | 81%64 W · 15 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…f625backed Yes | 64c | 246.06$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Yes | 72c | 203.52$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b0…4013backed Yes | 61c | 175.98$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 61c | 164$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 53c | 163.57$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…4d83backed Yes | 74c | 159$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…b4f9backed Yes | 64c | 153.63$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2998…b425backed No | 11c | 132.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 14c | 129.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…7c30backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0261…2b59backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbe…d7e1backed No | 33c | 119.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed No | 13c | 104.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 13c | 94.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 74c | 91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…fdbabacked No | 30c | 90.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…66f1backed Yes | 65c | 76.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +139%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11bb…3a09backed Yes | 64c | 70.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d4…6cc1backed No | 18c | 70.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 26c | 65.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62e…b2b6backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…73b5backed Yes | 59c | 59.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3b…98d2backed Yes | 72c | 46.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5a…f00ebacked No | 29c | 45.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf41…50e5backed Yes | 62c | 43.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…0325backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0a…76a3backed Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ff…9b3ebacked Yes | 63c | 38.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1958…a85cbacked Yes | 79c | 38.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Yes | 63c | 37.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed66…63c5backed Yes | 73c | 36.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f24…de3cbacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…2683backed No | 45c | 33.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2860…afa6backed Yes | 73c | 31.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x892d…f806backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 40c | 28.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb505…a152backed Yes | 73c | 28.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a5…6e66backed Yes | 62c | 26.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…63ffbacked Yes | 61c | 24.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x568c…9ea5backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…658dbacked Yes | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b41…416fbacked Yes | 62c | 18.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe047…a1cdbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f99…f425backed Yes | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…aa43backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +189.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals?this page
- Will Alex de Minaur win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals?No won
- Will Alexander Zverev win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals?No won
- Will Andrey Rublev win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals?No won
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals?No won
- Will Casper Ruud win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals?No won
- Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals?No won
- Will Taylor Fritz win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.