Tennis · resolved market
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46c2a2114f143d6aa444f3b6eeb63d494dfd434ba4accb4f7d4861a55cadf3ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 13c | 7,337$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.11 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 8c | 3,865$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.71 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…c6e3backed Yes | 1c | 2,575$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…d6aebacked Yes | 3c | 1,594$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…7cd3backed Yes | 17c | 813.39$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62e…b2b6backed Yes | 9c | 377.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbe…d7e1backed Yes | 14c | 352.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 15c | 314.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 312.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 16c | 292.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…1837backed Yes | 17c | 288.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked Yes | 13c | 216.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…650abacked Yes | 17c | 192.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197a…4932backed Yes | 16c | 149.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e09…da86backed Yes | 14c | 143$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8024…ba91backed Yes | 14c | 142.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…2683backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 16c | 126.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…73b5backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94c3…76d3backed Yes | 17c | 75.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals?this page
- Will Alex de Minaur win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals?No won
- Will Alexander Zverev win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals?No won
- Will Andrey Rublev win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals?No won
- Will Casper Ruud win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals?No won
- Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals?No won
- Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals?Yes won
- Will Taylor Fritz win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.