Us Politics · resolved market
US military action against Iran by Saturday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c6cff89b135f5684f5a25a98fd0335814d1bc411d08bfcf0be400db76ce511a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,480,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,309,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,480,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 270 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 8c | 412,960$34,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378,119.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 22cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…4925backed No | 1c | 157,957$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…e114backed Yes | 9c | 155,955$13,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142,630.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,070.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32fe…025fbacked No | 0c | 141,085$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 10c | 115,810$12,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103,676.3 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +277.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 8c | 103,683$8,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95,576.91 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 10c | 102,533$10,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92,527.58 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x13af…d1cabacked No | 1c | 98,114$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…074ebacked Yes | 10c | 89,205$8,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80,222.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 12cpaid | +399.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 24c | 81,241$19,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61,845.21 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0afc…30b2backed Yes | 10c | 67,466$6,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60,467.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +864.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 6c | 58,602$3,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,848.98 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed No | 69c | 57,011$39,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,325.09 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa735…b423backed Yes | 9c | 56,925$5,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,848.07 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53af…629fbacked Yes | 12c | 46,629$5,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,824.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +703.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…9307backed Yes | 10c | 39,039$3,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,042.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +876.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ec…f444backed Yes | 6c | 36,977$2,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,691.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +821.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked No | 0c | 36,448$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…fd20backed Yes | 7c | 34,689$2,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,194.01 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +264.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34c3…dbbfbacked Yes | 9c | 31,266$2,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,515.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,036.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 7c | 30,565$1,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,568.17 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a0…3761backed Yes | 6c | 29,998$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,072.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,458%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 1c | 25,280$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.47 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b3…209ebacked Yes | 8c | 25,033$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,033.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +150.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe12a…d428backed Yes | 6c | 25,000$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,534.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +753.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 7c | 23,799$1,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,773.9 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fe…6fc7backed Yes | 8c | 23,517$1,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,692.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +329.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 79c | 20,594$16,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,286.54 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…bfc5backed No | 78c | 20,569$16,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,022.54 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 10c | 20,084$2,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,981.45 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…4d06backed Yes | 5c | 19,487$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,512.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a12…d441backed Yes | 10c | 19,017$1,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,106.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +397.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 7c | 18,592$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,263.67 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed No | 33c | 18,500$6,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,137.49 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked No | 47c | 17,867$8,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,327.14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 7c | 17,779$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,588.43 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 8c | 14,920$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,777.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +178.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 5c | 14,573$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,832.01 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed No | 5c | 13,279$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.68 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e6…a3e0backed Yes | 6c | 12,806$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,066.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 14cpaid | +599%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf58f…37a4backed Yes | 9c | 12,154$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,106.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +667.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…2db6backed No | 0c | 12,051$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…a71dbacked Yes | 11c | 11,871$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,570.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 37c | 10,725$3,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,782.02 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fe…e320backed Yes | 8c | 10,403$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,532.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +182.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…ada5backed Yes | 7c | 10,395$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,666.89 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e72…0306backed Yes | 6c | 10,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,410.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +212.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed Yes | 51c | 9,937$5,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,914.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 11c | 9,651$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,611.06 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…e75bbacked Yes | 8c | 9,606$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,809.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +503.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 6c | 9,521$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,948.59 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…333dbacked Yes | 9c | 9,432$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,542.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +430.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 39c | 7,643$3,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,011.35 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 10c | 7,176$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,479.27 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…aaaebacked Yes | 10c | 6,750$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,044.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +856.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ee…752bbacked Yes | 7c | 6,711$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,211.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +571.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 56c | 6,333$3,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,788.79 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…8c9dbacked No | 31c | 6,224$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 7c | 6,116$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,685.09 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 9c | 6,000$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,462.58 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…bd6ebacked No | 45c | 5,849$2,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,607.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…f03fbacked Yes | 9c | 5,783$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,282.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +522.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…3b43backed Yes | 7c | 5,730$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,337.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +387.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe162…8a81backed Yes | 7c | 5,607$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,206.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…f07bbacked Yes | 43c | 5,577$2,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,195.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +212.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…071cbacked Yes | 7c | 5,500$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,090.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +125.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 9c | 5,456$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.88 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…ba8ebacked Yes | 7c | 5,445$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,044.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +754%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 6c | 5,222$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,901.48 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf577…972ebacked Yes | 7c | 5,200$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,839.47 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 78c | 5,145$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.37 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6667…cc12backed Yes | 10c | 5,127$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,627.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +925.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81a…eec2backed Yes | 9c | 5,029$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,551.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +91%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037e…0c63backed Yes | 9c | 5,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,540 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…4231backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,750 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 19cpaid | +673.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,677.23 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,709.96 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f6…e34ebacked Yes | 8c | 4,866$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,467.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +509.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 25c | 4,783$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.91 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +10.2wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 9c | 4,753$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,334.65 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 10c | 4,670$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,210.78 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…d071backed Yes | 12c | 4,615$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,063.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked No | 66c | 4,428$2,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,935.48 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b8…5201backed Yes | 12c | 4,305$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,805.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 12cpaid | +359.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 8c | 4,293$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,928.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +204.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 8c | 4,157$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,835.57 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 8c | 3,884$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,573.72 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…3ca9backed Yes | 8c | 3,792$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,481.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe7…0d16backed Yes | 6c | 3,764$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,543.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,136.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe260…f27dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,730$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,408.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +293.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…e25abacked Yes | 7c | 3,500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,244.78 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 29c | 3,365$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,390.8 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 8c | 3,308$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,043.47 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 2c | 3,272$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 18c | 3,208$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,646.38 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 5c | 3,000$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,847 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,879.99 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 7c | 2,918$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,701.87 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 9c | 2,900$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +179%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0441…194cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,888$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,688.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +331%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.