Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2df9f19e6e3cd274970b7e2abeb5c1814daab2cb1b057342bd749ee220b29a39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0371…70c3backed No | 2c | 8,067$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.21 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked No | 1c | 6,162$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffa…b3c6backed No | 1c | 2,532$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 20c | 1,342$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.2 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…22a3backed Yes | 62c | 1,005$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 966.77$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 13c | 952.88$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.51 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 779.87$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.73 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…4c8bbacked No | 9c | 671.51$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 640.36$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 19c | 583.47$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.19 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 8c | 540.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 25c | 537.1$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 4c | 368$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 7c | 351.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 37c | 344.41$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.54 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 6c | 336.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.66 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed No | 49c | 315.38$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.38 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 10c | 284$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 14c | 250.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 11c | 245$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 79c | 233$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 70c | 209.67$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 174.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…09dbbacked No | 6c | 170.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbab8…1b19backed No | 9c | 161.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…b593backed No | 10c | 142.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 132.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…e21ebacked No | 10c | 115.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 56c | 107$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…6cb6backed No | 12c | 96.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…e128backed Yes | 65c | 85.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 23c | 67.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…d2d9backed No | 39c | 61.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 63c | 57.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…6bfdbacked Yes | 70c | 48.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dc…b433backed No | 58c | 30.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 47c | 22.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 10–15 seconds by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 2–6 seconds by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 6–10 seconds by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last at least 15 seconds by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together by July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.