TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$118,182
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$122,237

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,182 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 305 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x75c1…5a05backed Yes46c24,568$11,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,290.2570%0 W · 7 L-3.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1638…339bbacked No54c23,111$12,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,631.276253.2%33 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7418…59e2backed No54c11,133$6,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,098.165453.7%29 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No55c10,199$5,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,557.7779639.6%315 W · 481 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Yes45c8,320$3,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,743.9132037.2%119 W · 201 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked No54c7,240$3,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,360.2740254.7%220 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked No70c6,536$4,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,979.5229643.6%129 W · 167 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03e9…9507backed No62c3,630$2,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.31637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed Yes46c3,343$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.6119336.8%71 W · 122 L-14.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-19.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4861…6cbfbacked Yes45c3,059$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,376.64540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb227…3601backed Yes46c2,994$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,380837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+27.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x01dc…475cbacked Yes47c2,953$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…ae05backed Yes47c2,682$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-58.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes45c2,578$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16068026.3%179 W · 501 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73b7…9360backed Yes46c2,399$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.181546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5b…50c9backed Yes21c2,380$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.88714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-56.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1875…eb5ebacked Yes11c2,201$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.485429.6%16 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a9c…8f07backed Yes47c2,159$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.35per pick46cpaid-80.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No55c2,090$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.531944.5%142 W · 177 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9542…4295backed No54c1,948$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.081752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe256…12f8backed Yes46c1,702$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.031450%7 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f79…1db4backed Yes47c1,600$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-61.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6e2…4693backed Yes45c1,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67530%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51ee…40b8backed Yes8c1,300$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-63.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa075…09fdbacked Yes46c1,269$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.044637%17 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a67…dc7cbacked No55c1,200$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5407651.3%39 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed No54c1,200$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5526959.4%41 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea0d…821cbacked Yes45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed No56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44034643.9%152 W · 194 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5efc…9b2abacked Yes45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf5f…2184backed No54c999.95$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.983644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf87…69b2backed Yes45c972.1$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.313020%6 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-46.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8769…48ecbacked No56c866$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.74252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7432…794bbacked Yes13c836.38$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11011937%44 W · 75 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd4a…d59fbacked Yes23c775.87$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No75c740.25$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.5379650.8%404 W · 392 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked No55c729$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.0514342.7%61 W · 82 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9aa…efefbacked Yes44c729$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed No55c704$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.8846660.5%282 W · 184 L+30.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc9e…d9f9backed No55c704$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.887967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+25.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0ff…ca90backed Yes17c700$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11921353.1%113 W · 100 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41b0…529bbacked Yes45c692.43$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.762853.6%15 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61e1…adf1backed Yes45c652.36$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.093240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed Yes44c600.67$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.3190751.3%465 W · 442 L-1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Yes46c543.43$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24939561.3%242 W · 153 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4707…7e5bbacked Yes47c531.91$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503923.1%9 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f7f…d498backed Yes29c509.22$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.25429.6%16 W · 38 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid+5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd692…8b9abacked No75c500.22$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.054555.6%25 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3aa1…637bbacked No55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2255644.6%25 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2753…2683backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-51.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016737.7%63 W · 104 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8637…9657backed No54c463$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.983762.2%23 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x476b…8a58backed Yes46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003151.6%16 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1396…b149backed Yes46c423.91$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1952454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2c7…1b5bbacked No54c419.47$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.9417945.8%82 W · 97 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e9e…7bd8backed No53c414.98$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.043551.4%18 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0bb…9702backed No56c401.79$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.796838.2%26 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Yes27c387.22$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.840046%184 W · 216 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5902…59fabacked Yes39c380$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.74839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f90…38e7backed Yes47c352.62$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.73922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-68.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe564…e364backed Yes45c340.89$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.4540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa40e…53ddbacked Yes42c324.36$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1355337.7%20 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes25c313.77$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4566031.2%206 W · 454 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed Yes44c308.59$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.7815337.3%57 W · 96 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bad…74a7backed No54c299.99$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1393751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes45c296.96$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.89348.4%45 W · 48 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0402…51d9backed Yes24c276.11$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c6c…5c09backed No55c269.09$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.091258.3%7 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick72cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66db…7afbbacked Yes45c264.25$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0e0…68a8backed Yes29c261.84$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754339.5%17 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Yes47c255.32$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12015347.7%73 W · 80 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eee…b4b2backed No78c250$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.821463.1%135 W · 79 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No61c244.97$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.9711342.5%48 W · 65 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed No74c234.36$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2534251.8%177 W · 165 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21d6…86fdbacked Yes46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe763…3d69backed Yes46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001931.6%6 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.22per pick54cpaid-49.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb44a…8e18backed Yes46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-26.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2774…07dfbacked Yes46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x612a…3c9cbacked Yes46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xceb6…eef7backed Yes46c216.97$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes12c215$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.951414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0af6…768bbacked Yes23c213.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a8a…0acdbacked Yes47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004926.5%13 W · 36 L-7.8wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-44.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x330b…69f1backed Yes47c212$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6420447.1%96 W · 108 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeb9…1b90backed Yes46c206.52$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-62.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x483e…2d6bbacked No69c200$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+41.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0ad…5176backed No54c200$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932725.9%7 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-41.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-45.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3d8c…726cbacked Yes45c199$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.552035%7 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x602c…53f2backed No56c194.79$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.71250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a0e…4dc6backed No54c192.59$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.596167.2%41 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc414…f1e8backed Yes27c183.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc17a…1db3backed No55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.821947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+27%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x477d…e691backed Yes28c179.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505848.3%28 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe34…cf4cbacked No55c163.22$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.857968.4%54 W · 25 L+8.4wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+24.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xce86…f868backed Yes20c157.45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.499334.4%32 W · 61 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5601…077bbacked Yes46c156.2$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dca…2978backed Yes45c152.79$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.76633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1636…8c6abacked Yes45c152.35$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes46c152.3$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0618433.7%62 W · 122 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.