Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa vs. Manchester City end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44a05907fee293ff5d56784a7557cef778ad346255e26a300e70319ebe9c7467
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7418…59e2backed No | 74c | 5,953$4,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.78 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cad…7f63backed Yes | 26c | 3,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbba9…6baabacked Yes | 27c | 2,901$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Yes | 29c | 1,386$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -12.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 73c | 1,167$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.99 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…efeebacked Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 26c | 964.52$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.78 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0661…a72ebacked No | 76c | 735.53$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.53 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 72c | 700.03$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.84 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e9…9507backed No | 69c | 675.4$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.42 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac2…d644backed No | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 25c | 497.63$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.41 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 27c | 314.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked No | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 68c | 262.72$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.66 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…8b9abacked No | 77c | 194.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4890…0968backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…7bd8backed No | 74c | 176.67$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x559e…7fe2backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 66c | 164.71$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc414…f1e8backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…4374backed No | 76c | 156$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +379.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 21c | 154.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | -23.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6e…632fbacked No | 75c | 144.45$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0424…3093backed Yes | 27c | 128.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…53ddbacked Yes | 30c | 116.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 26c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 107.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 427 | 55%235 W · 192 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x088d…b1b0backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 75c | 99.72$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…fb8fbacked Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f8…32f2backed Yes | 24c | 86.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed No | 75c | 84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c7…3c3bbacked Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac62…023bbacked Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…e7eebacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -5.7wins | -0.44per pick | 59cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a3fdbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af6…768bbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…483cbacked Yes | 27c | 59.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8b…4760backed Yes | 27c | 56.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ae…5783backed No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…81e0backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5272…f0afbacked Yes | 29c | 44.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…e43bbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf9…1289backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc227…2d27backed No | 75c | 24.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36b…8ff2backed No | 75c | 24.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +184.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…f792backed No | 75c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e8…4a27backed No | 75c | 20.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cc…0990backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 75c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 209 | 58.9%123 W · 86 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa vs. Manchester City end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-21?Yes won
- Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.