Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c94bd32c0be45c73e7f42908d7b32b07203fbcfd52409297c60f0c7e1c28a69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,485,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,116,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,485,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 506 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 8c | 396,038$30,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,249.4 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a2…63cdbacked Yes | 8c | 134,168$10,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,127.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 8c | 112,089$9,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,250.41 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 5c | 106,977$5,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,327.18 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 11c | 99,024$10,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,714.96 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 4c | 80,786$3,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,577.24 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…e1c9backed Yes | 12c | 74,005$8,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,918.6 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 11c | 61,791$6,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,804.34 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…4f80backed Yes | 11c | 58,701$6,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,475.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758c…074abacked Yes | 2c | 49,500$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.73 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f9…d241backed Yes | 8c | 45,600$3,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,853.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 9c | 41,370$3,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,550.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 10c | 39,210$3,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,824.74 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 38,799$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.56 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5572…984ebacked Yes | 7c | 38,252$2,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,558.73 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…657fbacked Yes | 10c | 34,824$3,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,520.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…62febacked Yes | 14c | 32,360$4,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,440 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 32,261$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.2 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…d95cbacked Yes | 14c | 28,874$4,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,110.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 4c | 25,515$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.42 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 11c | 25,506$2,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,821.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5724…73e5backed Yes | 9c | 25,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x877c…007cbacked Yes | 8c | 24,945$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…7122backed Yes | 11c | 23,351$2,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes | 9c | 23,204$2,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,035.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 11c | 21,800$2,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,464.55 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 5c | 21,600$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.7 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b0…4f37backed Yes | 9c | 21,369$1,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,966 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…e876backed Yes | 1c | 20,066$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x674f…df74backed Yes | 11c | 20,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 19,245$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.04 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 18,987$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.57 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 12c | 18,244$2,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,189.24 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d7…94cabacked Yes | 2c | 17,964$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d4…a96bbacked Yes | 3c | 16,847$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…6cfdbacked Yes | 4c | 15,322$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.64 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed Yes | 3c | 14,885$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…7ed6backed Yes | 5c | 14,617$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.94 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…637cbacked Yes | 9c | 14,124$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 11c | 14,042$1,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,528 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 6c | 13,807$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.67 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 10c | 13,273$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.7 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e6…95c4backed Yes | 8c | 13,000$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b6…6457backed Yes | 9c | 12,961$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 6c | 12,635$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.01 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…3068backed Yes | 9c | 12,623$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…1d15backed Yes | 2c | 11,552$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…df79backed Yes | 7c | 11,079$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9894…0420backed Yes | 15c | 10,860$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,613.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 10c | 10,726$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.21 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…c600backed Yes | 8c | 10,441$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.53 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…d071backed Yes | 8c | 10,433$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.59 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked Yes | 14c | 10,401$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e59…b85abacked Yes | 6c | 10,077$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.21 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 7c | 9,007$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.57 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb40…106cbacked Yes | 11c | 8,666$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5c82backed Yes | 10c | 8,655$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 12c | 8,466$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.28 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1e…b315backed Yes | 1c | 8,200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 7c | 8,185$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.42 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 13c | 8,000$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 8c | 7,657$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.36 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9978…a49ebacked Yes | 10c | 7,619$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 6c | 7,502$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.15 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 11c | 7,422$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.91 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526c…ab59backed Yes | 1c | 7,194$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a3…eb9cbacked Yes | 9c | 7,080$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.54 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…6662backed Yes | 4c | 6,981$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 3c | 6,632$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.87 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7470…56c4backed Yes | 12c | 6,571$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 4c | 6,333$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.93 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 9c | 6,173$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.2 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 6,069$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b3…253fbacked Yes | 5c | 5,712$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…2a75backed Yes | 2c | 5,364$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…cba0backed Yes | 7c | 5,325$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…d6c9backed Yes | 8c | 5,317$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.57 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 5,211$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.93 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3d…f091backed Yes | 8c | 5,193$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fac…574ebacked Yes | 6c | 5,149$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a1…7c68backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d47…8644backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 13c | 5,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a4…df46backed Yes | 11c | 5,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…035cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,999$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…e62abacked Yes | 12c | 4,998$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 10c | 4,851$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.63 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…ec02backed Yes | 6c | 4,773$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5be…a613backed Yes | 12c | 4,643$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…8e57backed Yes | 8c | 4,629$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea7d…aab5backed Yes | 13c | 4,615$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d7…6932backed Yes | 5c | 4,609$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…374fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,563$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 8c | 4,543$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.57 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 5c | 4,536$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.11 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8225…c4a8backed Yes | 6c | 4,500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 10c | 4,373$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.28 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 10c | 4,254$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.43 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dd…f73fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,039$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15b…8e9abacked Yes | 2c | 4,036$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.