Us Politics · resolved market
Will China confirm trade negotiations have begun by next Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32526ff9d8d662e3621893bf8a77b9855f92b1945c3b7c00026aa02283c77500
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes | 6c | 7,801$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 10c | 5,850$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.64 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 14c | 4,880$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.02 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 10c | 3,205$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.42 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 11c | 2,547$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.84 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,971$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.04 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddd…76b2backed No | 80c | 1,852$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed No | 76c | 1,700$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e86…2628backed Yes | 4c | 1,297$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 3c | 1,240$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 23c | 1,177$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.94 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a95…6a76backed Yes | 27c | 1,061$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 20c | 900$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 4c | 890.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x709b…0a0abacked Yes | 4c | 888.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 9c | 850$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 5c | 820.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 718.16$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.51 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 4c | 700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 75c | 684.17$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.94 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 8c | 670.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb9…74bfbacked Yes | 7c | 551.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 7c | 333$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 5c | 324.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 24c | 306.05$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 281.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 265.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes | 39c | 257.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…e8c9backed No | 79c | 253.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Yes | 20c | 244.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 238.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed Yes | 19c | 229.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a8…0261backed No | 74c | 216.22$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4685…fe25backed Yes | 28c | 214.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 184$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 32c | 168.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 24c | 168$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fd…f5ebbacked Yes | 24c | 148.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 36c | 143.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 16c | 138.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 17c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9780…6255backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…9b02backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 18c | 99.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 61c | 95.65$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 25c | 94.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 29c | 92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee8…57b4backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeace…fe6abacked Yes | 24c | 82.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5897…e5b6backed No | 75c | 64.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed No | 66c | 61.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…9865backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80d…1929backed No | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 73c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…1633backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 68c | 32.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…55edbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 76c | 23.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…1332backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…9a34backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc370…829abacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8170…e0d6backed No | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.