Tennis · resolved market
ATP Finals: Alcaraz vs. Rublev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74aac70de8edf86b76562ab0b6bb715b1fc3624542e2eb833ecf95fbef887991
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Rublev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17c1…a606backed Rublev | 38c | 3,649$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed Alcaraz | 66c | 3,199$2,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Alcaraz | 67c | 1,746$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.85 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed Rublev | 32c | 1,703$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…7f08backed Rublev | 36c | 1,284$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Rublev | 25c | 1,083$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.83 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Alcaraz | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Rublev | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Alcaraz | 68c | 858.83$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…63e1backed Alcaraz | 65c | 675.09$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Alcaraz | 61c | 659.98$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.99 | 158 | 60.8%96 W · 62 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Rublev | 36c | 579.83$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.14 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed Alcaraz | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…21a2backed Rublev | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Rublev | 24c | 433.8$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 579 | 39.7%230 W · 349 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed Alcaraz | 75c | 421.08$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Rublev | 24c | 333$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Rublev | 26c | 277.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.27 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…f625backed Rublev | 39c | 259$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…9bacbacked Alcaraz | 65c | 155.94$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Rublev | 35c | 150.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b0…4013backed Alcaraz | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Rublev | 29c | 124.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Alcaraz | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Rublev | 35c | 101.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Rublev | 39c | 100.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Alcaraz | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Alcaraz | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…2ea8backed Alcaraz | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Rublev | 27c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…c47fbacked Rublev | 39c | 51.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2eb…e281backed Alcaraz | 64c | 50.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Rublev | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fea8backed Rublev | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed Rublev | 35c | 47.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d44…11d5backed Alcaraz | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32f…e1bfbacked Alcaraz | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b0…19dbbacked Alcaraz | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Alcaraz | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…84e5backed Alcaraz | 65c | 24.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8d…f7f8backed Alcaraz | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74f…9051backed Alcaraz | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f6…3364backed Alcaraz | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc0…8e5abacked Alcaraz | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.