Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump visit Israel in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bd7435de6956562cc7dc2243a6388f472a764293ebab83d396a6c0fdd79e967
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 7c | 5,663$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 5,121$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 11c | 4,877$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.29 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 10c | 4,208$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.1 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,865$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 13c | 3,832$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 7c | 3,291$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.28 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 9c | 2,429$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.91 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,151$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.54 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,001$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 12c | 1,871$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.66 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 9c | 1,645$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.03 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 2c | 1,400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,371$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf206…8cf6backed Yes | 7c | 1,356$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +340.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 1,183$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 9c | 1,098$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +147.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 11c | 1,083$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +141.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 1,065$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.68 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 19cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 7c | 989.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc3…b89ebacked Yes | 12c | 891.76$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd81…1052backed Yes | 9c | 757.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x210f…9d6abacked Yes | 9c | 753.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 12c | 610$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 8c | 551.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9491…2e3cbacked Yes | 18c | 520$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 10c | 480.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 5c | 428.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 373.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 18c | 361.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…e015backed Yes | 12c | 335$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +548.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 14c | 324.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 10c | 320.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3c…cb2abacked Yes | 17c | 299.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 6c | 261.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 8c | 261.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.43per pick | 20cpaid | +456.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3f…ae90backed Yes | 18c | 230$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…4275backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 12c | 195$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Yes | 15c | 180.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 8c | 173$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 168$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | -17.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 13c | 141.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 7c | 140$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd216…3972backed Yes | 8c | 130.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 9c | 128.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 36c | 112.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 12c | 103.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -6.7wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d05…d394backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…5b9abacked No | 49c | 77.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f70…00e9backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 52c | 38.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…9d7cbacked Yes | 37c | 31.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +378.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ab…cdcbbacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 69c | 24.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.