NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Series Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f893df7993837cb577c33ca3c233e6d453ebebec5d0b2e039e2d2ffd42274cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Twolvesof Twolves, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Nuggets | 67c | 17,103$11,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,416.02 | 191 | 52.4%100 W · 91 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Twolves | 56c | 5,317$2,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,338.48 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Nuggets | 74c | 4,056$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.22 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…19fcbacked Twolves | 49c | 3,416$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,737.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 45cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7d…ce29backed Nuggets | 45c | 3,333$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…d842backed Twolves | 22c | 3,010$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,360.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Twolves | 50c | 2,719$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe61…9c70backed Nuggets | 16c | 2,629$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Twolves | 46c | 2,453$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.22 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Nuggets | 80c | 2,446$1,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,956.8 | 1,198 | 46.8%561 W · 637 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x929e…06cebacked Twolves | 36c | 2,373$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,517.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Nuggets | 37c | 2,210$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.82 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Nuggets | 42c | 2,180$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.37 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…dec4backed Twolves | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 53 | 69.8%37 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Nuggets | 41c | 1,750$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Nuggets | 80c | 1,393$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.4 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Nuggets | 64c | 1,150$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.24 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb6…7245backed Twolves | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 150 | 34%51 W · 99 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Twolves | 30c | 890.72$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.57 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…d1e3backed Nuggets | 58c | 700$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…b647backed Twolves | 40c | 614.29$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Twolves | 39c | 604.94$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.01 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -10.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Nuggets | 44c | 555$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed Twolves | 29c | 550$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked Twolves | 36c | 522.95$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.41 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb91…df9dbacked Twolves | 23c | 440.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…bd14backed Twolves | 36c | 402.78$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea0…efecbacked Nuggets | 18c | 396.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Nuggets | 60c | 344.56$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.2 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…525abacked Twolves | 21c | 300$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab20…3e19backed Twolves | 37c | 252.81$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Twolves | 39c | 250$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…a540backed Nuggets | 65c | 214.62$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Twolves | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…724cbacked Twolves | 61c | 164.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e47…b1e8backed Nuggets | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b39…c72abacked Nuggets | 64c | 143.5$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4656…e26bbacked Nuggets | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1821…150ebacked Twolves | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Nuggets | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…4209backed Nuggets | 65c | 99.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…188bbacked Twolves | 31c | 81.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 186 | 28%52 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…75bbbacked Nuggets | 64c | 78.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e4…e757backed Nuggets | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Twolves | 42c | 56.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 718 | 23.3%167 W · 551 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…6e0ebacked Twolves | 37c | 55.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…e781backed Twolves | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa117…1aa9backed Twolves | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…14c8backed Twolves | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…7abcbacked Twolves | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…507ebacked Twolves | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Nuggets | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Nuggets | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5845…0178backed Nuggets | 64c | 27.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf58…2ad5backed Nuggets | 65c | 22.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…dcdabacked Nuggets | 66c | 19.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…ed41backed Nuggets | 76c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.