TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Will Denver Nuggets be 2023-24 NBA Champions?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$149,696
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$135,501

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,696 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf86d…e314backed Yes24c12,200$2,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,955.59850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7d…ce29backed Yes25c7,866$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-48.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb0a…cc66backed Yes19c5,478$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.0740%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cf…dbadbacked Yes22c5,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes17c4,255$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.61,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ea…ea3bbacked Yes24c3,419$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5380…28debacked Yes25c3,372$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.314852.7%78 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes18c3,012$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5567031.4%22 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes5c2,683$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.179946.5%46 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x484d…9400backed Yes38c2,563$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd33a…2cc4backed Yes20c2,510$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea0…9928backed Yes20c2,480$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.721776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8822…de9bbacked Yes28c2,074$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes28c2,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57012245.1%55 W · 67 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43dc…a447backed Yes16c1,961$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.03333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No75c1,905$1,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.2179549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21a2…d2e0backed Yes22c1,148$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.2540%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes26c1,005$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.615020%10 W · 40 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-44.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea7…79acbacked Yes23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+74.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4225…4bfebacked Yes13c900.38$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8326…55b8backed Yes24c731.38$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f49…9f6fbacked Yes30c666.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a27…d1e3backed Yes24c600$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84c6…618abacked Yes22c600$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1341241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9006…507ebacked Yes34c592.45$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.432157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes7c563.17$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.58929.2%26 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,09035.8%390 W · 700 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ea0…efecbacked Yes12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16bb…525abacked Yes29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x262d…4b8fbacked Yes30c499.97$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e38…5d7fbacked Yes22c450$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+62.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5036…416bbacked Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2038845.9%178 W · 210 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1027…4c27backed Yes24c400$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+72.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22a6…38c0backed Yes26c389.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-80.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc922…bf70backed Yes21c388.28$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.541618.8%3 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-41.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes28c366.25$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5512649.2%62 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked Yes6c300.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189563.2%60 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28dd…b35bbacked Yes34c290.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17db…e2ffbacked Yes17c288.24$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a4…3c66backed Yes28c214.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608758.6%51 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x978f…ea2bbacked Yes24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1fb…8dcabacked Yes6c178$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.682050%10 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94b4…d32ebacked Yes28c176.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc7e…e093backed Yes6c169.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5936…764bbacked Yes9c143.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d9d…a6d7backed Yes12c133.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x540a…f1d8backed Yes25c100.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6af…cfa8backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78c9…abe1backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a92…4209backed Yes24c99.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.61816.7%3 W · 15 L-4.9wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-70.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x8319…c9a9backed Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c18…dfcbbacked Yes28c89.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70fa…196dbacked Yes24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-64.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0e3…abb8backed Yes22c75.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17110%0 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d12…47ecbacked Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09df…5ca9backed Yes28c71.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.758043.8%35 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed No78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.12326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c0b…79a3backed Yes20c55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b55…02f8backed No71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.63348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.114560.7%88 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.