NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: Game 5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0efc31c32dcb9c20617577534edcccb28df6cc29f1ecfe7950f13f513f48bad3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Timberwolves, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5cf…b579backed Mavericks | 38c | 20,679$7,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,846.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Timberwolves | 62c | 17,809$10,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,964.9 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Timberwolves | 62c | 8,600$5,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,343 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…20cbbacked Mavericks | 39c | 7,773$3,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,771.55 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Timberwolves | 62c | 7,000$4,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,350 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Timberwolves | 18c | 6,382$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.14 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…7a6abacked Timberwolves | 63c | 3,174$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Timberwolves | 63c | 3,100$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Timberwolves | 62c | 1,496$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.5 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…0b65backed Timberwolves | 1c | 1,115$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Timberwolves | 62c | 1,109$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.4 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…1081backed Mavericks | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Timberwolves | 61c | 808.73$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.9 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36be…e312backed Mavericks | 39c | 626.62$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Timberwolves | 62c | 613.16$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Timberwolves | 3c | 424.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…fd87backed Mavericks | 41c | 265.8$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb268…46c7backed Mavericks | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf98…41bcbacked Mavericks | 39c | 217.9$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5115…fb5bbacked Timberwolves | 63c | 163.3$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…5ae6backed Timberwolves | 63c | 163.16$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3d…87c2backed Mavericks | 37c | 140.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…d9a7backed Mavericks | 37c | 140.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c62…45f8backed Mavericks | 37c | 137.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbc…a9edbacked Mavericks | 37c | 137.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Mavericks | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…8455backed Mavericks | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…8b7cbacked Mavericks | 37c | 127.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…6bcebacked Timberwolves | 63c | 90.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca6…99edbacked Timberwolves | 63c | 82.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…ae4abacked Timberwolves | 65c | 78.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4235…7acebacked Timberwolves | 65c | 78.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b6…cbfcbacked Timberwolves | 65c | 78.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…68e2backed Timberwolves | 65c | 78.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…507ebacked Mavericks | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Timberwolves | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6165…2256backed Timberwolves | 63c | 49.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…e452backed Mavericks | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…c7c5backed Timberwolves | 63c | 28.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c30…b742backed Mavericks | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3be…64b6backed Timberwolves | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.