NBA · resolved market
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves: Game 2
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd65e5de18bb753fbeee7f58083149ba3db0af93fca610f3e032435101292f4db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Nuggets, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Nuggets | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.09 | 155 | 51%79 W · 76 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Timberwolves | 32c | 1,582$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.57 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Nuggets | 68c | 1,310$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.7 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…19fcbacked Timberwolves | 34c | 1,126$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 45cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Nuggets | 67c | 800$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Timberwolves | 30c | 700$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.77 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Nuggets | 70c | 600$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Timberwolves | 34c | 561.76$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.76 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Timberwolves | 31c | 500$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…3d76backed Timberwolves | 53c | 452.5$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.55 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Nuggets | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -10.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Nuggets | 66c | 225.71$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Timberwolves | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed Timberwolves | 29c | 155.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.17 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa117…1aa9backed Nuggets | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Timberwolves | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…507ebacked Timberwolves | 34c | 38.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves: Game 2this page
- New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers: Game 1Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.