Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x695b7deb22887c3630080154e23762c9cef487a02ade6504ed78391fd7c37027
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 70c | 8,151$5,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,447.25 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 17c | 7,602$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.17 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 26c | 5,424$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.54 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 16c | 3,021$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.81 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed Yes | 65c | 1,000$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed No | 40c | 900$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 9c | 800$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 8c | 735.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -87%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…a577backed Yes | 24c | 701.92$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…df21backed No | 78c | 700$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…ad04backed No | 66c | 554.93$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f2…146ebacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…adabbacked Yes | 47c | 450$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada8…2585backed No | 70c | 440.14$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da7…ba93backed Yes | 3c | 357.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…6b77backed No | 45c | 347.96$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…93e7backed No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2eb…a3ecbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 49c | 217.73$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x055f…d83abacked No | 69c | 216.87$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Yes | 7c | 212.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…96a5backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf7…b28fbacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a0…1680backed No | 59c | 198.31$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 10c | 190.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e07…49a3backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 76c | 178$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.28 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…86ffbacked No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf759…be6fbacked No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…507ebacked No | 57c | 77.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -8.4wins | -0.34per pick | 58cpaid | -65%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9546…0739backed Yes | 71c | 67.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cb…b053backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9744…9c17backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b48…f27ebacked No | 57c | 34.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5914…a72abacked No | 72c | 30.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345b…9f2ebacked Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ae…0a8bbacked No | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac69…84f2backed No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf5…cafcbacked No | 77c | 13.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.