Token Launches · resolved market
Will Trump launch a coin by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bb8c6f366e401369309eb7eaa19fd163112c4136bd1b4116504410bd03cc248
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $154,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 3c | 18,645$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.3 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 4c | 16,052$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.41 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 15c | 8,604$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 2c | 8,349$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.81 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 21c | 5,184$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.7 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f6…a773backed Yes | 23c | 3,662$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…07c8backed Yes | 7c | 3,610$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.65 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…336cbacked No | 78c | 2,459$1,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6352…1445backed Yes | 9c | 2,177$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…e792backed Yes | 5c | 2,100$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c0…6b87backed Yes | 3c | 1,998$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf714…0d3cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,720$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 21c | 1,667$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,559$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.34 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa734…84edbacked No | 80c | 1,030$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…4551backed Yes | 18c | 969.25$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb69…4064backed Yes | 6c | 867.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes | 24c | 722.58$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.12 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…20dcbacked Yes | 15c | 680.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff7…ac64backed Yes | 5c | 638$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873c…ac48backed No | 79c | 430.05$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed Yes | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b2…3737backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed No | 79c | 300$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…013ebacked Yes | 19c | 293$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 14c | 222$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e64…f2abbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…1561backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 13c | 195$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…507ebacked No | 79c | 189.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed No | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b39…0e7abacked Yes | 25c | 104.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…e978backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…a8b7backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5c…87ebbacked Yes | 17c | 58.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…86a9backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1106…496abacked No | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.