Premier League · resolved market
Euro 2024: Favorite fails to advance beyond group stage?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57b7c90bd02db1d81edb78ce6191a13ca2cdfe3a9f53955089e47632ccded219
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 28c | 974.63$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.1 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c0…6b87backed Yes | 13c | 440.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 69c | 374.78$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.62 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 26c | 362.2$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.85 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…8aa7backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1666…ba7bbacked Yes | 42c | 240$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed No | 68c | 236.94$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 16c | 236.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 319 | 44.5%142 W · 177 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…507ebacked Yes | 38c | 231.42$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.05 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 63c | 229.34$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a9…a861backed No | 64c | 229.17$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…d0e8backed Yes | 22c | 208.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b04…e8bebacked Yes | 37c | 202.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…0246backed Yes | 35c | 202.93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…2207backed Yes | 14c | 141.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…20cbbacked No | 67c | 124.86$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…6e17backed Yes | 41c | 121.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…d5cebacked Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…4035backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1527…15a5backed Yes | 39c | 79.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…f621backed Yes | 21c | 69.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…4bb1backed No | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…ba70backed Yes | 37c | 63.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x757b…62c8backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +71%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed No | 65c | 54.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…3c29backed No | 80c | 52.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked Yes | 40c | 52.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…14a4backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked No | 64c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes | 35c | 43.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13b…3e09backed Yes | 37c | 32.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b3…55c7backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ea…2fd2backed Yes | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…63c2backed No | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.