AI · resolved market
Ilya doesn't announce plans by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee79acdc48379f25bbb413dde8fa0fe24cfc764a7eaded63a53d149dd5ffac19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes | 75c | 426.14$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…6653backed Yes | 76c | 360.42$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…da98backed Yes | 78c | 267.45$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 72c | 265$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 8c | 216.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34b6…2a9ebacked Yes | 76c | 106.58$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7156…de71backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…507ebacked Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…d7a5backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00cd…1f27backed No | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6b…a799backed Yes | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6792…766fbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab20…65fabacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…9e56backed Yes | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ilya doesn't announce plans by May 31?this page
- Ilya joins a new company?No won
- Will Ilya join Anthropic?No won
- Will Ilya join Apple?No won
- Will Ilya join Google?No won
- Will Ilya join X?No won
- Will Ilya join another company?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.