NBA · resolved market
Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves: Game 3
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ce3ecf6210519e739e4a7b131dcce9e23bd8cfdd270eb7adf3026c198615689
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Mavericks, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Timberwolves | 46c | 2,686$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.65 | 304 | 43.1%131 W · 173 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Mavericks | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Timberwolves | 45c | 1,718$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.1 | 191 | 52.4%100 W · 91 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Mavericks | 55c | 1,150$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Timberwolves | 44c | 1,135$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.82 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Mavericks | 44c | 1,098$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.16 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 829.25$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.63 | 155 | 51%79 W · 76 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Mavericks | 52c | 364.28$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.37 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked Timberwolves | 48c | 256.64$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.7 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Mavericks | 59c | 222$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked Mavericks | 55c | 220$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Mavericks | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 177.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…4209backed Mavericks | 57c | 164.43$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…188bbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 104.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 186 | 28%52 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…7e92backed Timberwolves | 44c | 87.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…507ebacked Mavericks | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd6…0ec1backed Mavericks | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…1ecbbacked Mavericks | 54c | 21.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.