NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Mavericks Series Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74c4d3ba31ea4683e3cfa46efb3b65da13f9a7fbd38926bc20da33782f581879
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Thunder, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7789…f823backed Mavericks | 50c | 3,825$1,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,923.26 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Thunder | 55c | 3,206$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749.93 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Thunder | 51c | 2,678$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Mavericks | 53c | 2,059$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.34 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…b579backed Mavericks | 38c | 1,850$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x442b…5410backed Thunder | 22c | 1,201$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Mavericks | 58c | 1,080$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.22 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Mavericks | 55c | 1,024$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.25 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Thunder | 54c | 953.7$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0dacbacked Mavericks | 79c | 689.53$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.67 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Thunder | 21c | 406$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Thunder | 33c | 400$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Thunder | 48c | 297.91$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Mavericks | 56c | 232.31$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.62 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…d842backed Mavericks | 41c | 222.73$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…525abacked Thunder | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Thunder | 36c | 175$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Mavericks | 78c | 143.9$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Mavericks | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Mavericks | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…3d76backed Mavericks | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Thunder | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a1…a4b6backed Mavericks | 80c | 57.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…4209backed Thunder | 35c | 50.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Thunder | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…507ebacked Thunder | 60c | 45.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Mavericks | 47c | 36.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…f880backed Thunder | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.