Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49bc4114c9181abb64fd5b09ffb9e48cc0ab5b9c20bbb34b76aaa0f570b938af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $278,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $272,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $278,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 268 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 13,699$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 47c | 10,271$4,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,405.24 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 13c | 5,583$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.49 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 15c | 5,032$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d70…8af1backed Yes | 36c | 4,196$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…ecb4backed No | 75c | 4,145$3,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.79 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 3,670$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.13 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 8c | 3,371$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.28 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2690…6b67backed Yes | 30c | 3,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 1c | 2,959$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,788$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed No | 71c | 2,719$1,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.37 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2771…d030backed Yes | 4c | 2,556$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 6c | 2,447$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.82 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba7…4782backed Yes | 10c | 2,311$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | +161.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 9c | 2,278$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 20c | 2,259$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…fc98backed Yes | 24c | 2,247$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 8c | 2,075$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.72 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked No | 64c | 1,616$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2d…9375backed Yes | 8c | 1,580$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3a…e29abacked Yes | 1c | 1,551$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 7c | 1,472$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.19 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked No | 62c | 1,436$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.64 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,420$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 26c | 1,279$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.41 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 18c | 1,262$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.37 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,240$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaccc…d450backed Yes | 41c | 1,212$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff5…461abacked Yes | 14c | 1,202$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb48…4d59backed Yes | 4c | 1,187$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +424.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e75…82ccbacked Yes | 35c | 1,151$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3674…2fc6backed Yes | 15c | 1,097$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…32abbacked Yes | 37c | 1,082$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f93…e7a5backed Yes | 38c | 1,050$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed No | 61c | 1,005$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b19…1ad9backed Yes | 20c | 996.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…0122backed No | 69c | 961.85$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.85 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…423abacked Yes | 44c | 919.94$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 12c | 890.64$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 72c | 855.08$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.58 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 36c | 821$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.56 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 5c | 799.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 36c | 795$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.2 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed No | 77c | 760.4$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.3 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…3474backed Yes | 1c | 735.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc150…a2f8backed Yes | 16c | 732.19$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.27per pick | 32cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 8c | 721$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9a…6025backed Yes | 36c | 701.39$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.44 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…5ca4backed Yes | 10c | 698.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +120%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 74c | 694.18$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.3 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd293…a4e3backed No | 75c | 688.54$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 9c | 641.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…ae37backed Yes | 10c | 631.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2694…610bbacked Yes | 16c | 627$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 65c | 618.29$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.04 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2c…bc2fbacked Yes | 17c | 590.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a61…8c32backed No | 79c | 572.61$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.29 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb30d…5cf1backed Yes | 43c | 561.95$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 52c | 555.07$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.43 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…e462backed Yes | 27c | 545.29$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.25 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 44c | 538.86$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.28 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 17c | 511.62$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7018…6057backed Yes | 8c | 511.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.95 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa56…3455backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa5…0cd3backed No | 47c | 491.18$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 23c | 486.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.32 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 70c | 477.23$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.21 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5e…bf98backed Yes | 23c | 474.31$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85aa…017abacked No | 73c | 449.53$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…21fbbacked Yes | 37c | 435.7$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.11 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…60c2backed Yes | 5c | 433.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73c6…0d27backed Yes | 18c | 430.01$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed Yes | 23c | 428.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac89…f9eebacked No | 13c | 418.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +259.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 17c | 406.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.03 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa556…cf96backed Yes | 13c | 399.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…d87cbacked No | 67c | 399.98$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…8529backed Yes | 25c | 393.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 12c | 391.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.07 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4a…43abbacked Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…ff39backed Yes | 31c | 350.45$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.94 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…68e0backed Yes | 38c | 338.67$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.8 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bc…c4afbacked Yes | 30c | 336.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d7…c380backed Yes | 19c | 336.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…0be9backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 31c | 326.04$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 6c | 325.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x525f…b707backed Yes | 15c | 323.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…3f9bbacked No | 69c | 320.79$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4988…e0e6backed Yes | 38c | 320$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…2515backed No | 64c | 311.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +252.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?this page
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.