Earnings · resolved market
Will Exxon Mobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4694ec9169fd7df41af2741cc74a9da087cde234be2b89ab9470d66b5283ec58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc52f…9a32backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 15c | 1,052$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.69 | 332 | 25%83 W · 249 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 14c | 999.87$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.98 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 15c | 599.93$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc832…ed2bbacked No | 18c | 466.75$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 15c | 399.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 306 | 15%46 W · 260 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…177fbacked No | 21c | 392.34$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.93 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed No | 16c | 261.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…ee92backed No | 24c | 250$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…e8ccbacked No | 16c | 248.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 206.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 79c | 206.3$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 16c | 184.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 80c | 162.5$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 316 | 29.4%93 W · 223 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 17c | 147.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fd…4be3backed No | 17c | 139.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…0bbabacked No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb204…6370backed No | 16c | 123.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 23c | 110.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fe…4b2ebacked No | 17c | 86.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 18c | 85.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 17c | 83.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 18c | 81.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x267a…d267backed Yes | 80c | 62.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…0b63backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…7622backed No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed Yes | 75c | 44.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bf…d1f4backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Yes | 79c | 32.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 78cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31f5…89d1backed Yes | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 72c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 75c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.