World Politics · resolved market
Canada federal election in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfad14932325af166b81190e1f3c0d7ed892357551e5a77f064813f2de5a1b40a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,863,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,944,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,863,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes | 1c | 60,023$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.61 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 1c | 27,905$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.73 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8b…ae0fbacked Yes | 3c | 19,841$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…d0e0backed Yes | 1c | 19,807$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b4…1f5ebacked Yes | 38c | 19,807$7,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,526.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 9c | 17,064$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 11,737$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 16c | 10,458$1,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660.89 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 10,092$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…7498backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf118…1f58backed Yes | 10c | 9,705$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.17 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 11c | 9,517$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.17 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb1…097dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,351$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f4…0312backed Yes | 11c | 8,331$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.54 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed Yes | 10c | 7,721$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,088$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed Yes | 1c | 6,046$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 5,458$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x560a…f693backed Yes | 9c | 5,435$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…d0a8backed Yes | 1c | 4,363$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e53…cc49backed Yes | 8c | 3,993$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…0bf8backed Yes | 10c | 3,935$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a3…8649backed Yes | 1c | 3,701$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…e708backed Yes | 7c | 3,472$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 23c | 3,400$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.74 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6e…96ffbacked Yes | 10c | 2,860$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea3…28c8backed Yes | 0c | 2,355$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 18c | 2,247$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.23 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed Yes | 1c | 2,190$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0916…ed0bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,022$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e41…cf4dbacked Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6e…c567backed Yes | 1c | 1,940$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…f6fbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,861$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe75…159fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,694$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 9c | 1,650$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae65…d7cdbacked Yes | 15c | 1,577$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de1…0b3fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,455$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 25c | 1,451$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.8 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…ce80backed Yes | 1c | 1,406$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…f861backed Yes | 1c | 1,349$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe913…0d48backed Yes | 1c | 1,207$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,154$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.01 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80b…90e1backed Yes | 1c | 1,150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 1,114$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.85 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 8c | 1,057$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…2492backed Yes | 1c | 1,051$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a40…4dccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,003$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…1776backed Yes | 1c | 974.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2710…76e9backed Yes | 8c | 927.4$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 9c | 918.76$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 20c | 914.87$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.69 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc30b…c929backed Yes | 1c | 908.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 889.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 12c | 879.82$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe332…e140backed Yes | 1c | 784.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes | 11c | 740.39$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 11c | 700$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…a452backed Yes | 17c | 644.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…3023backed Yes | 12c | 627.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e7…5e49backed Yes | 9c | 576.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 29c | 567.86$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b4…4a0abacked Yes | 8c | 420.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…201bbacked No | 79c | 400$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1c…33c1backed Yes | 12c | 201.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…07c4backed Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e73…a236backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…49efbacked Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 45c | 195$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ef…2fcabacked Yes | 11c | 185.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 181.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…9b85backed Yes | 19c | 176.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…e8ccbacked Yes | 17c | 159.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…44debacked Yes | 7c | 143$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3098…568abacked No | 74c | 136$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…5803backed Yes | 12c | 81.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffdf…0359backed No | 73c | 54.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…2fefbacked No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.