Earnings · resolved market
Will Eventbrite (EB) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25afa79a84eb8b7a89cb8ac46df47b1cc232d4b7a185e315dded78173a5b209b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,320 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed No | 80c | 6,008$4,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.48 | 96 | 65.6%63 W · 33 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 28c | 2,640$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.5 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…e8ccbacked Yes | 18c | 2,136$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.55 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed No | 64c | 1,473$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.38 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x701e…9013backed Yes | 24c | 801.1$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.76 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 60c | 729.6$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.28 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes | 25c | 695.49$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.35 | 302 | 15.2%46 W · 256 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 74c | 662.19$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.93 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf63e…d3afbacked Yes | 4c | 650$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 13c | 597.01$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 25c | 572.19$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.71 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed Yes | 28c | 551.92$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.62 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 25c | 527.26$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.9 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 76c | 515.15$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.71 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 400$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed Yes | 34c | 251.58$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.35 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa6…0a65backed Yes | 18c | 250.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 22c | 231.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 19c | 157.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 18c | 145.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked Yes | 39c | 140$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 136.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 22c | 133.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…ab0fbacked Yes | 18c | 128.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 16c | 114.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…cf9abacked Yes | 13c | 103.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 38c | 95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 36c | 93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…3b81backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed Yes | 27c | 73.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 27c | 58.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…26a4backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…2398backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…a8d4backed Yes | 27c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf98f…927dbacked Yes | 33c | 45.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -77%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…85cabacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked No | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 35.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…06ebbacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…5280backed No | 59c | 34.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed Yes | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d76…5169backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1d…81e5backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.